Preparing your Black Friday logistics: plan and checklist

Black Friday doesn't put your ads to the test. It tests what happens after the click. Preparing Black Friday logistics means your operation can absorb several times your normal order volume with stock squared away, consumables bought, carriers briefed and a plan for issues and returns. All of that gets decided weeks in advance, not on Thursday night.

A promotion that multiplies your sales also multiplies any failure. A stock-out, a mislabelled parcel or a collection that doesn't turn up can eat into the margin you're already giving away with the discount. That's why logistics preparation has to come before the creatives, the discount codes and the emails.

How to prepare your Black Friday logistics: the short answer

To prepare your Black Friday logistics campaign you need five things: an order forecast by SKU across three scenarios, stock received and checked before the campaign, picking capacity that's measured rather than assumed, carriers with confirmed collection times, and a plan for issues and returns. Start eight to ten weeks beforehand.

Below you'll find each point in detail, a worked example with indicative figures, a week-by-week schedule and a checklist to run through before you switch on the offers.

Preparing Black Friday logistics starts with the data

The first step is turning your historical data into an operational forecast. Last year's revenue isn't enough: you need orders per day, units per order, best-selling SKUs, returns, destinations and the busiest buying windows. If you sold more last year because you expanded your catalogue or increased your ad spend, that figure without context won't help you calculate capacity.

If this is your first Black Friday, use your best week of the year plus your planned ad spend. Talk to whoever runs your ads: the media plan is the best clue as to how many orders will come in and on which days.

Build three scenarios: conservative, expected and maximum. For each one, work out the units you'll need, the daily orders you'll have to prepare and the space the stock will take up. The maximum scenario isn't pessimism: it's what stops you improvising if the campaign performs better than expected.

Prioritise SKUs, not just total sales

Overall volume might double while three or four SKUs multiply by five. Identify the products that drive most of your sales and the ones bought together. A hero product without its matching accessories, spares or key sizes lowers your average order value and floods customer service with messages.

Also rank your items by how complex they are to prepare. A single lightweight unit doesn't cost the same to pick as a multipack, a gift order or a fragile product. That difference determines how many orders per hour you can actually ship.

Set your safety stock using your replenishment lead time

Safety stock isn't a fixed figure copied from another month. It depends on how much demand varies and how long each supplier takes. If your replenishment takes three weeks, waiting to see how inventory drops during Black Friday means assuming you'll run out of stock at Christmas.

A mistake we see every year: your supplier is also in campaign mode and their lead times stretch out. Ask for delivery dates in writing and build in a buffer.

Receive and check your stock in good time

Your goods need to be in, counted and located before the campaign starts. Check every goods-in by SKU, quantity and condition. Logging stock that no one has verified creates fictitious availability on your store, and selling units that don't exist costs you time, money and customers. Run a count of your critical SKUs the week before; our article on